Highlights

  • North African gas supplies to Europe will remain tight this winter
  • Algeria had another disappointing oil and gas acreage bid round because of an unattractive fiscal regime
  • Iran is set to face another tight winter despite importing more gas from Turkmenistan

Economic overview

Algeria is expected to have a current account deficit in 2014 for the first time in 15 years. The current account deficit will mainly be as a result of slumping hydrocarbon exports and lower oil prices, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Quarterly year-on-year GDP growth rates

  Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 2014 2015 2016
Qatar 5.5% 6.2% 5.7% *6.5% *7.7% *7.8%
Egypt 1.4% 2.5% 3.7% *2.2% *3.5% *3.8%
Saudi Arabia 5.0% 5.1% 3.8% *4.6% *4.5% *4.4%
Nigeria 6.8% 6.2% 6.5% *7.0% *7.3% *7.2%
South Africa 2.0% 1.6% 1.0% *1.4% *2.3% *2.8%
Source: Regional government sources, *IMF WEO projections

The country’s trade surplus fell by 20.4% year on year – to $4.67 billion – in the first eight months of 2014. Declining gas production in Algeria, together with growing domestic demand, is worsening the situation. Hydrocarbon exports account for around 96% of Algeria’s total export revenues and a declining trend will limit government spending on the upstream sector.