Highlights

  • Temperatures will be near or below average in parts of Europe over the next few weeks
  • Output from regional suppliers will fall on an annual basis over the winter period
  • Storage levels in large European markets are below where they were a year ago
  • Low temperatures have supported hub prices, but there have been no major sustained gains

Economic overview

Although they will face some hurdles, all EU member states are expected to see growth in 2015.        

GDP is expected to grow across all EU countries this year, according to the union’s recently released winter forecast. The EU’s total GDP growth is expected to be around 1.7% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016. However, risks to growth remain. At the time of writing, a resolution for Greece’s new bailout programme had yet to be reached, and the country’s potential exit from the eurozone remains a possibility.  

Quarterly annual GDP growth rates

  Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014
France 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Germany 0.3% 1.1% 2.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.5%
Italy -1.8% -1.2% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.3%
Netherlands -0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%
Spain -1.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0%
UK 1.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7%
Source: OECD

The UK’s service sector PMI was 57.2 in January, marking an improvement from December. As the sector accounts for around 75% of the economy, this is a significant indicator of the country’s economic performance. The UK’s GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.7% in Q4 and is expected to continue to rise this year.