Highlights

  • Low temperatures have supported consumption, but regional gas demand growth will remain weak in Q1
  • Regional production will continue to rise in early 2015
  • Queensland Curtis LNG started operations at the end of 2014
  • LNG prices are low at the start of 2015 as the region approaches the peak winter period

Economic overview

China’s GDP growth will fall slightly in 2015, according to the latest economic outlook for Asia Pacific.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has reduced its estimate for China’s GDP growth for 2014 in its latest report – from 7.5% to 7.4%. The ADB also forecasts China’s GDP growth will fall further in 2015, to 7.2%. Growth in 2014 was slower than expected, which affected the expansion of China’s gas market. Slower economic growth could also restrict development of the country’s gas market in 2015.

Asia GDP growth

  2014 Previous 2014 Revised 2015 Previous 2015 Revised
China 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 7.2%
South Korea 3.7% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8%
Taiwan 3.4% 3.6% 3.3% 3.6%
Indonesia 5.3% 5.1% 5.8% 5.6%
Malaysia 5.7% 5.7% 5.3% 5.3%
Singapore 3.5% 3.2% 3.9% 3.5%
India 5.5% 5.5% 6.3% 6.3%
Source: Asia Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook Supplement, December 2014

Reforms are expected to boost India’s economic performance this year. The country’s GDP growth in 2014 is estimated to have been around 5.5%, and it is forecast to rise to 6.3% this year. Measures supporting investment and improved service sector growth are underpinning India’s healthier outlook. Strong economic growth and low LNG prices could result in the country importing more of the fuel this year.

The dramatic drop in global oil prices will benefit importers and countries with expensive fuel subsidies this year. Although Indonesia and Singapore have both had GDP forecasts for 2015 reduced – expansion in 2015 is still expected to be greater than last year.