Wholesale prices have plunged and are set to decline further.
European day-ahead hub prices have fallen by 25-30% since the start of February. The NBP day-ahead price was roughly 41 p/th by mid-March while the TTF day-ahead was close to 40 p/th. As seasonal demand has weakened, the unexpected outages that have hit supplies have failed to prevent a decline in day-ahead prices. The NBP day-ahead is now around 7 p/th below where it was at the same time in 2015. However, it remains around 11 p/th higher than it was at the same time last year. Weak seasonal and underlying demand has reduced consumption on an annual basis in key markets in March. Although European domestic production is also falling, imports are helping to keep the market well supplied.
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