Global Gas Analytics

Disclaimer
Please note that forecasts and price information provided in Global Gas Analytics are for information only. The indices and forecasts represent the opinion of Interfax market analysts, and Interfax makes no representations or warranties, implied or otherwise, as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, or for the reliability and accuracy of the forecasts provided. Despite the best efforts of Interfax, it does not guarantee that any information contained is accurate and up-to-date. It is the sole responsibility of the user for any decision they may take based on the information provided herein. Interfax cannot accept any liability, direct or indirect, for any inaccuracies within or omissions to any content provided on or as a result of using the forecasts contained herein.

Indices
The Interfax gas indices express standardised values for gas traded relative to a 2014 base period. The aim is to allow meaningful comparison of gas values across regions, and to identify broad trends in the overall price.

Values are normalised to reflect the base year = 100, with current market values expressed as a multiple of this base value, with weightings in the basket based on known indexation patterns in each region.

Gas price forecasts
Global Gas Analytics bases its gas price forecasts on an analysis of market fundamentals. Although spreadsheets are used to analyse the suitability of various forecasting measures, and to assist analysts in coming to a view on the market, the forecasts are not the result of a forecasting model. The forecasts are based on analysis of supply and demand trends, supplemented by technical analysis and Commitment of Traders data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Interfax analysts are not registered investment advisers, and the forecasts contained herein reflect an opinion on market direction and are not provided as investment advice.

GGA Research Note

Disclaimer
Please note that any forecasts and price information provided in Global Gas Analytics Research Note are for information only. The indices and forecasts represent the opinion of Interfax market analysts, and Interfax makes no representations or warranties, implied or otherwise, as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, or for the reliability and accuracy of the forecasts provided. Despite the best efforts of Interfax, it does not guarantee that any information contained is accurate and up-to-date. It is the sole responsibility of the user for any decision they may take based on the information provided herein. Interfax cannot accept any liability, direct or indirect, for any inaccuracies within or omissions to any content provided on or as a result of using the forecasts contained herein.

Explanatory Notes
Various sources such as GIIGNL, the BP Statistical Review, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and government agencies provide annual data on LNG trade flows. However, data from different sources can be inconsistent and this can lead to inaccuracies in analyses and forecasts. The notes below explain the approach to data assessment taken in producing this Research Note:

  • LNG import data presented here are based on customs-cleared volumes.

    Background information:
    - Several countries use regasified volumes to represent LNG imports when submitting LNG import data to the IEA or GIIGNL. This can be quite different from customs-cleared volumes. Regasified volumes do not include LNG stored in tanks or customs-cleared volumes on ships waiting to be unloaded.

    - The use of ship-tracking data can introduce inaccuracies as not all ships have their trackers on. Using ship-tracking data can introduce substantial discrepancies in traded volumes for countries involved in partial loading and discharge.

    - Noticeable differences in published LNG volumes can also be caused by countries using both regasified volumes and customs-cleared volumes when submitting data to different agencies.
  • The following conversion factors are used from the natgas.info website:
    - 1 million metric tonnes of LNG = 1.3794 billion cubic metres of gas
    - 1 billion cubic feet of gas = 0.0283 billion cubic metres of gas

    Background information:
    - Some agencies use their own conversion factors to convert volumes submitted to them by national sources. Others rely on national sources to provide conversions. Unit conversions provided by several national sources tend to vary from year to year, and this can lead to data inconsistency.