Gazprom’s exports to Europe will rise on an annual basis in December, but by less than in recent months.
Russian flows to Europe are expected to reach roughly 178 bcm in 2016, an increase of 12% year on year. Exports were up by around 28% on an annual basis in November, reaching 17.4 bcm. However, flows in December are estimated to rise by only around 14%, to roughly 17 bcm. This will bring Russia’s overall Q4 exports up to 51 bcm, an increase of 19% year on year. Russian export volumes are expected to continue to rise over the winter. However, volumes to Europe could be limited if hub prices remain low and the rise in oil prices pulls up the average price of oil-indexed contract supplies.
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