Executive Summary Oil market outlook

The escalating trade war between the United States and China will remain a significant bearish factor affecting oil prices over the coming months. Nevertheless, persistently declining output from Venezuela and prospects for a sharp fall in Iranian exports once US sanctions are reimposed later this year will limit price losses.

It is almost certain that China will impose additional tariffs on imports of oil and refined products from the US as trade tensions between the two countries ratchet up. The prevailing brinkmanship has already hit oil...