TAPI pipeline should extend to India’s neighbours, SAARC argues

The long-planned Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline should extend from India to Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan to help fill growing gas shortages in those countries, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has recommended.

“As per the vision and concept of the SAARC Energy Ring, the gas flow to Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka could be possible either through a gas pipeline grid or through swapping arrangements,” Hilal A. Raza, director of the SAARC Energy Centre, told Interfax.

Energy experts from the SAARC members, which include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, took the position after meeting in late July to finalise a draft co-operation agreement in the oil and gas sector.

The TAPI pipeline is expected to begin operating in 2016, according to Raza. The interconnector would carry about 90.6 million cubic metres of gas per year from the Yolotan and Osman fields in Turkmenistan. As it is currently planned, it would run 1,680 km from Turkmenistan through Kandahar in Afghanistan, across the Pakistan border in the Balochistan region, and through Punjab in India.

The pipeline’s estimated cost has risen from $3.3 billion to $7.6 billion to take into account higher steel and construction costs, according to Inter State Gas Systems , a state-owned company that is developing Pakistan’s branch of the project. The Asian Development Bank is also funding the project.

In order to deliver the Caspian gas to Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan, India would have to agree to extend the link to its north-eastern region, and then allow those countries to connect to it, the SAARC Energy Ring said.

The group also suggested that the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline could, likewise, be extended to India’s north-eastern border and linked up with its four neighbours.

This would require, however, that India agree to build its section of the pipeline. Iran and Pakistan are currently working to build and begin operating the interconnector between them by 2013, but India has so far remained on the fence due to concerns about becoming dependent on Pakistan, a long-time foe, and angering the United States by violating sanctions against Iran.

While talks of building the TAPI pipeline also fell silent for about two years, they have recently resumed. The pipeline’s developers are expected to negotiate a Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement this year, after signing an inter-governmental agreement and a gas pipeline framework agreement in December.

Still, whether or not India will choose to join the TAPI project remains to be seen, said Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, a research officer at the Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies in India.

“Basically now, both the TAPI and IPI pipelines are not attractive,” Iyer-Mitra said. “The TAPI was preferred, since no international finance company was willing to underwrite IPI loans due to sanctions on Iran and the fact that India wanted a submarine pipeline that bypasses Pakistan, but that increases costs tremendously.”

Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan are all suffering from forecasted gas shortages. In Bangladesh, for example, proven gas reserves have dropped from 700 billion cubic metres in 1990 to 400 bcm in 2010, while consumption climbed from 10 bcm in 2000 to 20 bcm in 2010, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 (see Bangladesh: It’s time to entice the foreign bigwigs).