The Algerian government has so far managed to avoid a full-scale revolution like that seen in neighbouring Libya. But concerns over the health of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika are prompting an outbreak of factional rivalry in the ruling elite over a succession plan, while numerous small-scale demonstrations throughout the country show that the Arab Spring has not bypassed Algeria.
Algerian gas supplies account for about 15% of OECD Europe’s gas imports, making it Europe’s third largest gas supplier after Russia and Norway. It delivers gas to Italy by pipeline through the 32.5 billion cubic metre per year Transmed system, as well as to Spain and Portugal through the 11.5 bcm/y GME pipeline and, since April 2011, through the 8 bcm/y Medgaz line. More to the point, Algeria is the most important supplier of piped gas to Italy and Spain, and the largest LNG exporter to France and Turkey. The country produced 80.4 bcm of gas last year, according to data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, published in June, of which 36.48 bcm was piped to Europe and 19.31 bcm shipped to Europe and other regional markets via LNG tankers. The remaining output of 24.61 bcm was used for domestic power generation.
Not out of the woods
When protests in Tunisia this January triggered what has become known as the Arab Spring, commentators were carefully monitoring Algeria for signs of disruption. Early fears of widespread protests have dissipated as the government has managed to remain in control despite Algeria’s neighbour, Libya, descending into a full-blown civil war.
However, the lack of large-scale demonstrations does not mean Algeria’s problems are over. “It is all very well saying there’s been no revolution, been no riots, but small riots [and] small demonstrations are taking place throughout Algeria every day,” MENAS Associates’ Managing Director Charles Gurdon told the North Africa Oil & Gas Summit in Madrid in October. “The population also does not believe that there has been serious political reform.”
President Bouteflika, in power since 1999, ended a 19-year state of emergency in February and outlined a series of constitutional reforms to “strengthen democracy” in the country a month later. He plans to run again in next year’s presidential election, though persistent rumours of ill-health have called this plan into question. “We believe the [health] problems are more serious than they have been in the past,” said Gurdon. Another of the country’s most powerful figures, General Mohammed Mediene, who is in charge of the security service called the Department du Renseignement et de la Securitie (DRS), has also been ill in last few months, Gurdon said, though he has since recovered.
Ready for change?
Bouteflika’s position is particularly important for Sonatrach, the country’s national oil and gas company. He has gained a high degree of personal control over the company, Professor John P. Entelis from the Middle East Studies Programme at Fordham University argues in a new book Oil and Governance, due to be published in December 2011. “Following his uncertain and highly controversial election as the republic’s president in 1999, Bouteflika was determined to gain control of Sonatrach,” he said. In 2000, he took over control of appointments within the company, even down to mid-level managers, Entelis said.
And there are signs that political factions within the ruling elite are positioning ready for a change of leadership, John Hamilton from Africa Energy told the North Africa Oil & Gas Summit. “Algeria is now geopolitically isolated, with regimes on both sides of its borders that had central roles in the Arab Spring uprisings. There are also signs of a split in the Algerian party of independence, perhaps suggesting a proxy early campaign to see who will replace Boutiflika,” he said.
Oil and gas companies looking to invest in the country will not be comforted by reshuffling of the existing political elite. The country is already struggling to attract foreign investment. “Algeria is not a very attractive place for IOCs [international oil companies] and there have been two pretty unsuccessful licensing rounds,” Gudron pointed out. A coup d’e’tat still appears a remote prospect, even though there are visible signs of discontent among Algeria’s population. “Amongst the under-employed and under-represented citizens of Algeria, the pressures for change are nonetheless both there and steadily mounting,” Chatham House analyst Dr Claire Spencer said in an expert comment published on the think-tank’s website in late August.
The main barrier to more violent protests appears to be the collective memory of Algeria’s bloody civil war that started in the 1990s. On 5 October 1988, nationwide uprisings led to the introduction of political pluralism, but this opening ended up in a confrontation between Algeria’s military and an Islamist insurgency, costing the country dearly and engendering an aversion to political violence among Algerians. Younger generations may not feel the same, but the absence of credible civil society organisations leaves them unable to articulate clear political demands.
Algeria hasn’t escaped Arab Spring unscathed
Questions about the health of Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika are causing factional rivalries within the ruling elite over who will replace him. (PA)
The Algerian government has so far managed to avoid a full-scale revolution like that seen in neighbouring Libya. But concerns over the health of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika are prompting an outbreak of factional rivalry in the ruling elite over a succession plan, while numerous small-scale demonstrations throughout the country show that the Arab Spring has not bypassed Algeria.
Algerian gas supplies account for about 15% of OECD Europe’s gas imports, making it Europe’s third largest gas supplier after Russia and Norway. It delivers gas to Italy by pipeline through the 32.5 billion cubic metre per year Transmed system, as well as to Spain and Portugal through the 11.5 bcm/y GME pipeline and, since April 2011, through the 8 bcm/y Medgaz line. More to the point, Algeria is the most important supplier of piped gas to Italy and Spain, and the largest LNG exporter to France and Turkey. The country produced 80.4 bcm of gas last year, according to data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, published in June, of which 36.48 bcm was piped to Europe and 19.31 bcm shipped to Europe and other regional markets via LNG tankers. The remaining output of 24.61 bcm was used for domestic power generation.
Not out of the woods
When protests in Tunisia this January triggered what has become known as the Arab Spring, commentators were carefully monitoring Algeria for signs of disruption. Early fears of widespread protests have dissipated as the government has managed to remain in control despite Algeria’s neighbour, Libya, descending into a full-blown civil war.
However, the lack of large-scale demonstrations does not mean Algeria’s problems are over. “It is all very well saying there’s been no revolution, been no riots, but small riots [and] small demonstrations are taking place throughout Algeria every day,” MENAS Associates’ Managing Director Charles Gurdon told the North Africa Oil & Gas Summit in Madrid in October. “The population also does not believe that there has been serious political reform.”
President Bouteflika, in power since 1999, ended a 19-year state of emergency in February and outlined a series of constitutional reforms to “strengthen democracy” in the country a month later. He plans to run again in next year’s presidential election, though persistent rumours of ill-health have called this plan into question. “We believe the [health] problems are more serious than they have been in the past,” said Gurdon. Another of the country’s most powerful figures, General Mohammed Mediene, who is in charge of the security service called the Department du Renseignement et de la Securitie (DRS), has also been ill in last few months, Gurdon said, though he has since recovered.
Ready for change?
Bouteflika’s position is particularly important for Sonatrach, the country’s national oil and gas company. He has gained a high degree of personal control over the company, Professor John P. Entelis from the Middle East Studies Programme at Fordham University argues in a new book Oil and Governance, due to be published in December 2011. “Following his uncertain and highly controversial election as the republic’s president in 1999, Bouteflika was determined to gain control of Sonatrach,” he said. In 2000, he took over control of appointments within the company, even down to mid-level managers, Entelis said.
And there are signs that political factions within the ruling elite are positioning ready for a change of leadership, John Hamilton from Africa Energy told the North Africa Oil & Gas Summit. “Algeria is now geopolitically isolated, with regimes on both sides of its borders that had central roles in the Arab Spring uprisings. There are also signs of a split in the Algerian party of independence, perhaps suggesting a proxy early campaign to see who will replace Boutiflika,” he said.
Oil and gas companies looking to invest in the country will not be comforted by reshuffling of the existing political elite. The country is already struggling to attract foreign investment. “Algeria is not a very attractive place for IOCs [international oil companies] and there have been two pretty unsuccessful licensing rounds,” Gudron pointed out. A coup d’e’tat still appears a remote prospect, even though there are visible signs of discontent among Algeria’s population. “Amongst the under-employed and under-represented citizens of Algeria, the pressures for change are nonetheless both there and steadily mounting,” Chatham House analyst Dr Claire Spencer said in an expert comment published on the think-tank’s website in late August.
The main barrier to more violent protests appears to be the collective memory of Algeria’s bloody civil war that started in the 1990s. On 5 October 1988, nationwide uprisings led to the introduction of political pluralism, but this opening ended up in a confrontation between Algeria’s military and an Islamist insurgency, costing the country dearly and engendering an aversion to political violence among Algerians. Younger generations may not feel the same, but the absence of credible civil society organisations leaves them unable to articulate clear political demands.