Central and Eastern Europe keeps delicate balance

The improving gas supply and trade dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe are increasing supply diversity and security in the region. And as the countries’ gas supplies and flows have changed, so too have their relationships with Ukraine. So far this year, all of Ukraine’s imports have come from Europe. And unless a winter supply deal between Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukrainy is agreed, reverse flows from Central and Eastern Europe will remain critical over the coming peak winter demand months. The start of the new gas year has been mild so far, but if a harsh winter hits the region, the balance will be tested.

Total demand from Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria is expected to be around 54 billion cubic metres this year, broadly the same as last year. Although consumption has been rising in most markets in 2016, declines in Slovakia have hit demand levels and growth.