Special Report

Be careful what you wish for: The LNG market in 2015

Independent estimates of LNG project startup dates and a look at how the market is likely to develop over the next five years.

Interfax Global Energy's latest special report, Be Careful What You Wish For: The LNG Market in 2015, provides independent estimates of LNG project startup dates and shows how the market is likely to develop over the next five years.

The Natural Gas Daily and Global Gas Analytics teams look at new liquefaction plants and regasification terminals expected to come online between 2015 and 2020, using our global network of reporters, editors and analysts to assess how they stack up against published start dates and company estimates.

  • As many as four new LNG plants are due to come online in Australia this year, plus America's first export project in the lower 48 states and at least one of the new floating liquefaction plants under development – the Pacific Rubiales vessel in Colombia. But at the same time, Asian LNG demand appears to be in retreat, with Japanese LNG imports likely to have peaked and China turning its attention to piped imports and domestic shale gas production.
  • Hopes and ambitions for East African LNG are bountiful, but the difficulty of doing business in certain countries – combined with the weight of low oil prices on project economics – will likely slow progress considerably. Mozambique, in particular, could become one of the world's largest LNG export giants, but its potential is hampered by the absence of critical infrastructure, and lower LNG prices will make it harder to raise financing.
  • The rise in liquefaction capacity is set to be accompanied by a rapid growth in floating regasification, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Pakistan is set to bring its first FSRU online in March, while Egypt plans to begin importing gas from its Ain Sokhna FSRU at the beginning of April. The rapid emergence of FSRU technology offers countries without access to gas reserves a quick-fix solution at a fraction of the price of a land-based terminal. So expect to see more in the years to come.
  • The outlook for Russia's LNG plans depends not just on crude prices, but also on the future of Western sanctions imposed in 2014. Tension between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis has put the country's LNG projects – namely Yamal and Vladivostok – in jeopardy, by making it harder for operators to secure foreign financing and crucial technology. Despite these factors, operators Novatek and Gazprom insist their projects remain on course to start up in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Table of contents

  • Trends in term contracts
  • Trends in regional supply and demand: Europe, Russia, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific, China, Americas
  • Price outlook
  • Supply capacity tables
  • New regasification terminals 2013-2018

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