Supply & Demand

OIES trumps IEA in Latin American LNG forecasting

How good are expert forecasts? Wildcat looks at the case of South American LNG demand. Conclusion: it helps to hedge your bets How good are expert forecasts? Wildcat looks at the case of South American LNG demand. Conclusion: it helps to hedge your bets.
By Chris Noon 13 February 2018 0 29562
A Sabine Pass LNG cargo arrives in Brazil. A Sabine Pass LNG cargo arrives in Brazil. (Petrobras)

There are two schools of thought in South American LNG forecasting: Oxford and Paris. Their positions are easily summarised: the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) is bearish, while the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) is bullish.

The OIES forecast in late 2016 that South American LNG demand would fall from around 11 mtpa in 2015 to 5.1 mtpa by 2020, assuming ‘normal’ weather conditions. But the IEA predicted last year that demand would remain strong, increasing to around 22 mtpa by...