Middle East & Africa: Price trends
Egypt’s falling LNG demand, together with its rising LNG exports, will be bearish for spot prices in 2018.
The impact of Egypt’s changing profile on spot prices will be particularly noticeable when the country is not in the summer months and has the flexibility to export more LNG. Output from Egypt’s West Nile Delta and Nooros projects has already dented the country’s need for imported LNG, and the Zohr project could see a sharp rise in Egyptian LNG exports. Zohr’s first phase will be comprised of four gas-processing trains – the first of which is expected to come online in Q4 2017, with the rest due to be operational in H1 2018. The first phase of Zohr will have a plateau production capacity of 14.5 bcm/y – equivalent to just over 38% of Egypt’s marketed gas output in 2016.