Executive Summary: Oil market outlook
Global oil prices will remain volatile in sentiment-driven trade before the OPEC meeting scheduled for 30 November. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Venezuela’s deteriorating economy will support prices in the longer term. However, the all-time high in US oil production will be the main bearish factor capping price gains.
Arrests and dismissals of several prominent politicians and businessmen under Saudi Arabia’s crackdown on alleged corruption have caused concern among investors. Many consider the move to be a consolidation of power by the king and the crown prince, which could result in political instability. Political upheaval in Lebanon has also highlighted rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Meanwhile, political unrest in OPEC-member Venezuela, which is on the verge of a full-blown sovereign default, has also favoured oil prices.