Executive Summary: Oil market outlook

October 2017

Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the run-up to the OPEC meeting scheduled for 30 November. Rhetoric suggesting the cartel will extend or even deepen the output cut, together with geopolitical tensions, have supported oil prices. However, rising oil production and exports from the United States will limit price gains.

The output cut agreement has helped to rebalance the oil market, supporting prices. However, the growth in US output has dampened the pace of the rebalancing. Consequently, it is widely anticipated that OPEC and some non-OPEC countries will agree to extend the agreement beyond March 2018. Deepening the cuts is a contentious issue, as it would hit export revenues for several oil exporters even further.