Executive Summary: Oil market outlook
Global oil prices will have limited upside in the run-up to the OPEC meeting in November. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) upward revision of its global oil demand growth forecast, together with weakness in the US dollar index, will support prices. However, the recovery in US oil production after Hurricane Harvey will remain the dominant bearish factor capping price gains.
The IEA has raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2017 to 1.6 million barrels per day (MMb/d) from its previous forecast of 1.5 MMb/d, citing strong demand growth in Europe and the US. Consequently, the Brent crude front-month futures price has averaged around $54/bbl so far in September – an increase of $2.4/bbl from the August average. GGA forecasts the price will average $52.5/bbl in 2017.