Executive Summary: Oil market outlook
Finely balanced market fundamentals are expected to keep global oil prices rangebound in the run-up to the OPEC meeting in November. Rising US oil production, together with reduced compliance with OPEC’s output cut, will weigh on gas prices. However, weakness in the US dollar index and Saudi Arabia’s plan to reduce oil exports to its Asian customers will help support prices.
The Brent crude front-month futures price has averaged around $52 per barrel so far in August, an increase of $2.7/bbl from the July average. Meanwhile, the WTI crude front-month futures price has risen by $2.2/bbl on a monthly basis to average around $49/bbl in August. GGA forecasts the Brent price will average $52/bbl in 2017 as a whole.