Executive Summary: Oil market outlook

June 2017

Gains in global oil prices will be capped over the coming months as key players remain unconvinced about the pace of market rebalancing. Rising oil output in the United States is an ongoing concern, but the production profiles of Nigeria and Libya – the two countries exempted from the OPEC output deal – will also be watched closely.

The Brent crude front-month futures price has averaged $48.2 per barrel so far in June – a drop of $3.2/bbl from its May average and its lowest monthly average since November 2016. Meanwhile, the WTI crude front-month futures price has averaged $45.9/bbl so far this month compared with an average of $48.5/bbl in May. GGA forecasts the Brent price to average $52/bbl in 2017 as a whole.

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