Executive Summary: Oil market outlook

July 2016

Global oil prices have come under pressure after the UK voted to leave the EU in a referendum held on 23 June. The global economic implications of Brexit will add to oil price volatility in the coming months, but the market will continue to rebalance this year helped by falling production in the US.

The Brent crude front-month futures price has averaged $47.6/bbl so far in July, a 4.6% drop from June’s average. Meanwhile, the front-month futures price for WTI crude has seen a month-on-month decline of 6.3%, to $45.8/bbl. GGA expects Brent to average $44.5/bbl this year, down from its previous forecast of $46.1/bbl.