Executive Summary: Oil market outlook

June 2016

Global oil prices have remained volatile ahead of the UK’s referendum on its EU membership, which will be held on 23 June. The Brent crude front-month futures price has traded in a range of $46.9-52.9 per barrel so far this month, but it has averaged around $50/bbl.

Oil prices are expected to lack a firm direction in the coming months because of conflicting market fundamentals. OPEC refrained from reintroducing a cap on oil output at its June meeting, sending a bearish signal to the market. The cartel is not expected to change its stance this year even if oil prices rise further.