Executive Summary: Oil market outlook

May 2016

Supply disruptions, falling oil production in the United States and the relative weakness in the US dollar index are expected to support global oil prices in the coming months. The Brent crude front-month futures price has averaged $46.4/bbl so far in May, an increase of 7.1% from April. Meanwhile, the front-month futures price for WTI crude has risen by 10.3%, to $45.4/bbl.

Spread between WTI and Brent crude futures

Canada has shut down nearly half of the production capacity from its oil sands, amounting to nearly 1 million b/d, after a massive wildfire in the province of Alberta. This is hampering supplies of Canadian crude to refineries in the US midwest.

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