Europe & Russia: Trade
As indigenous European production falls at the start of the winter, Russian exports to Europe are also expected to decline.
Russian exports to Europe are expected to fall by 9% on an annual basis in October. This will be the first year-on-year decline for any month in 2017. The drop will see Europe’s imports from Russia decrease to 15.5 bcm. However, exports to Europe were very high in October 2016, having risen by around 17% on an annual basis, to approximately 17 bcm. Consequently, the volume of exports anticipated for October 2017 is high when compared with October 2015. Demand in Europe looks set to be relatively weak, and to fall on an annual basis in some large markets in October. Additionally, with Europe’s storage levels in a strong position, import requirements are not as high as at the start of last winter. An early start to the winter cold in Russia has driven higher domestic demand. This, coupled with weaker requirements for gas in Europe, has put pressure on volumes for exports.