Europe & Russia: Production

October 2017

European gas production looks set to fall on an annual basis at the start of the winter.

Dutch output will be dragged down by declines at the Groningen field over the winter. Supplies from the field are set to fall by around 10% on an annual basis this gas year (October 2017-September 2018). Winter production from Groningen actually rose on an annual basis last year, despite the fact that output from the field over the full gas year fell by 11%. Output during the 2016/2017 winter increased by around 3% year on year, to 13.4 bcm. This year, roughly 12 bcm could be produced, based on estimates on the reduction of the annual cap. With swings in production still an option, flows from the field over the winter could exceed the 12 bcm anticipated. However, strong winter output will require more severe declines during the summer period. The expected drops in Groningen supply are likely to pull down total Dutch output over the 2017/2018 year, which will weigh on total regional production.

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