Europe & Russia: Price trends

May 2016

Hub prices are expected to fall as Europe moves into the summer.

After rising to more than 32 p/th in April, the NBP month-ahead fell back to around 29-30 p/th by mid-May. Similar declines in the TTF and NCG month-ahead prices were seen in early May, with the TTF at around 29-30 p/th and the NCG around 30-31 p/th by the middle of the month. However, the drop in the TTF and NCG month-ahead prices in €/MWh terms was greater as the pound strengthened against the euro during the first half of May, reducing the fall in prices in p/th. The NCG month-ahead was over €14/MWh at its peak in April, but by mid-May it was around €13/MWh – a drop of 8%. Over the same period the drop in p/th was just 6%. Moving into the summer, month-ahead hub prices will remain under pressure.