Americas: Price trends

November 2017

Forward and futures markets

The tightening US gas market will support Henry Hub futures prices during the 2017-2018 withdrawal season.

The US made its first weekly net storage drawdown of the withdrawal season earlier this year than it did in the 2016-2017 withdrawal season. Residential and commercial gas demand is set to rise during the winter, when temperatures are forecast to be below average. Moreover, the country’s gas output is expected to drop during the season. A rise in pipeline gas and LNG exports from the US will also support the Henry Hub front-month futures price over the coming months. GGA expects the US to export 24.7 bcm during the winter, a rise of 12.3% on an annual basis. Consequently, GGA forecasts the front-month futures price will average $4/MMBtu during the coming winter compared with $3.26/MMBtu in the previous winter.

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