Americas: Price trends

August 2017

Forward and futures markets

The Henry Hub front-month futures price will rise in 2017 on an annual basis despite weak weather-related demand in the US.

US gas production is declining, and the country’s gas stocks are expected to fall below the five-year average by the end of the summer. Both these factors signal regional supply tightness during the 2017-2018 withdrawal season, which normally starts in November. Preliminary forecasts suggest the Total Degree Days (TDD) figure in the US will average 792F during the 2017-2018 winter, higher than the 717F seen last winter and the five-year average of 779F. Although the forecast is subject to change over the coming months, even average temperatures during the winter could create supply tightness.

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